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9231-2021-mj-41-q01
May/June 2021 · Paper 41 · Question 1 · 7 marks
1(a) 56.56 B1 Accept unsimplified.
x = =8.08
7
s2 = 1 457.275− 56.562 = 0.045033 = 1351 M1 Accept unsimplified.
6 7 30000
8.08−8.22 M1 A1 1.74 – 1.75
t = = − 1.745
s2
7
Tabular value 1.440 M1 Comparison with 1.440 and correct FT conclusion.
1.745 > 1.440 , so reject H
0
There is insufficient evidence to support the hypothesis that the A1 Correct conclusion, in context, following correct work. Level
(population) mean is 8.22 OR sufficient evidence to suggest mean of uncertainty in language is used.
is less than 8.22 OR sufficient evidence to suggest μ<8.22 OE
6
1(b) Underlying distribution is normal/ population is normal B1 X is normal distributed.
1
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9231-2021-mj-41-q04
May/June 2021 · Paper 41 · Question 4 · 8 marks
4 s 2 = 1 1596− 2822 = 0.11265 = 138 M1 One correct, unsimplified.
x 49 50 1225
s y 2 = 5 1 9 1808− 3 6 2 0 82 = 0.25311 = 8 2 8 2 5 4 A1 Both correct to 3sf.
0.11265 0.25312 M1 A1 May be implied.
s2 = + =0.006471…
50 60
282 328 M1
−
z= 50 60
their s
[z] = 2.155 A1 Tolerance 2.15 – 2.16
Comparison with tabular value 1.96 OE M1 Comparison with 1.96 OE and conclusion.
2.155 > 1.96
Reject H
0
Sufficient evidence to reject population means are equal OR A1 Correct conclusion following correct work. Level of
sufficient evidence to accept population means are not equal OR uncertainty in language is used.
sufficient evidence to suggest μ ≠μ OE
A B
8
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9231-2021-mj-42-q01
May/June 2021 · Paper 42 · Question 1 · 7 marks
1(a) 56.56 B1 Accept unsimplified.
x = =8.08
7
s2 = 1 457.275− 56.562 = 0.045033 = 1351 M1 Accept unsimplified.
6 7 30000
8.08−8.22 M1 A1 1.74 – 1.75
t = = − 1.745
s2
7
Tabular value 1.440 M1 Comparison with 1.440 and correct FT conclusion.
1.745 > 1.440 , so reject H
0
There is insufficient evidence to support the hypothesis that the A1 Correct conclusion, in context, following correct work. Level
(population) mean is 8.22 OR sufficient evidence to suggest mean of uncertainty in language is used.
is less than 8.22 OR sufficient evidence to suggest μ<8.22 OE
6
1(b) Underlying distribution is normal/ population is normal B1 X is normal distributed.
1
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9231-2021-mj-42-q04
May/June 2021 · Paper 42 · Question 4 · 8 marks
4 s 2 = 1 1596− 2822 = 0.11265 = 138 M1 One correct, unsimplified.
x 49 50 1225
s y 2 = 5 1 9 1808− 3 6 2 0 82 = 0.25311 = 8 2 8 2 5 4 A1 Both correct to 3sf.
0.11265 0.25312 M1 A1 May be implied.
s2 = + =0.006471…
50 60
282 328 M1
−
z= 50 60
their s
[z] = 2.155 A1 Tolerance 2.15 – 2.16
Comparison with tabular value 1.96 OE M1 Comparison with 1.96 OE and conclusion.
2.155 > 1.96
Reject H
0
Sufficient evidence to reject population means are equal OR A1 Correct conclusion following correct work. Level of
sufficient evidence to accept population means are not equal OR uncertainty in language is used.
sufficient evidence to suggest μ ≠μ OE
A B
8
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9231-2021-mj-43-q01
May/June 2021 · Paper 43 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1 1 1522 M1 13
s2 = 2313−
=0.28889 , accept unsimplified.
45
9 10
H : μ = 14.8 H : μ > 14.8 B1 If μ not used, ‘population mean’ required.
0 1
Must see 14.8, must be = and >.
152 M1 Using unbiased estimate.
−14.8
[ t= ] 10 p-value is 0.0215.
s/ 10
[ ]
t= 2.35 A1 Rounds to 2.35.
Tabular value = 1.833 M1 Comparison with 1.833 and correct FT conclusion.
‘2.35’ > 1.833
Reject H
0
Sufficient evidence to accept Farmer B’s claim oe A1 Correct conclusion, in context, following correct work. Level
of uncertainty in language is used.
Allow ±1 difference in third significant figure of their t for this
mark.
6
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9231-2021-mj-43-q03
May/June 2021 · Paper 43 · Question 3 · 8 marks
3 89 67.2 B1 Implied by 0.1 in the CI formula.
x = =1.78 y = =1.68
50 40
σ x 2 = 4 1 9 159.4− 8 5 9 0 2 = 0.02 = 5 1 0 M1 One variance correct unsimplified.
σ y 2 = 3 1 9 113.1− 67 4 . 0 22 = 0.0052308 = 3 1 2 7 50 A1 Both correctly calculated.
0.02 0.0052308 69 M1 Unsimplified expression must be seen, 40 and 50 in correct
σ2 = + = places.
50 40 130000
[σ2 =] 0.0005308 A1 May be implied by correct final answer.
CI : 1.78 – 1.68 ± z × 0.0005308 M1 Correct form for CI with a z-value.
with z = 1.96 A1
0.10 ± 0.0452 or [0.0548, 0.145] A1 Allow either form.
8 SC Assuming equal variances award B1M0A0, M1A1 (for use
of pooled variance formula, gives 0.0135), M1A1A0.
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9231-2021-on-41-q01
Oct/Nov 2021 · Paper 41 · Question 1 · 7 marks
1(a) 78.5 B1 157
s2 = =8.7222
9 18
s2 M1 Correct expression with a t value.
CI: 25.6±t
10
With t = 1.833 A1 With correct t value.
25.6±1.71 ( 2 ) or [23.9, 27.3] A1 Accept in either form, ISW. Accept inequality form.
4
1(b) 25.6−k M1
t
s2
10
With t = −1.383 A1 Allow 1.383.
26.9 A1 CAO
3
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9231-2021-on-41-q04
Oct/Nov 2021 · Paper 41 · Question 4 · 8 marks
4 H :μ −μ =2 and H :μ −μ >2 B1 Or use of μ.
0 B A 1 B A d
Differences: 5 8 2 0 4 7 −2 1 10 −3 M1 Allow one error.
d =32, d2 =272 M1 Sample mean and variance.
1 322 848
d =3.2, s2 = 272− =18.84 =
9 10 45
3.2−2 M1 A1
t = =0.874
s2
10
Compare with tabular value 1.833: 0.874 < 1.833. M1 Compare their value with 1.833 and conclusion.
Accept H .
0
Insufficient evidence to support claim. A1 Correct conclusion, in context, following correct work.
Level of uncertainty in language is used.
Assumption: population differences are normally distributed B1
8
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9231-2021-on-42-q01
Oct/Nov 2021 · Paper 42 · Question 1 · 7 marks
1 1 7522 304 M1 One correct unsimplified.
s 2 = 14320− =4.677 =
x 39 40 65
1 15482 1308 A1 Both correct to at least 3sf.
s 2 = 40200− =4.434 =
y 59 60 295
4.6769 4.4339 M1
s2 = +
40 60
3659 A1
=
0.1908
19175
752 1548 M1A1 Correct form with a z-value with 1.96 s can be unsimplified.
CI =
−
±1.96s
40 60
− 7.0 ±0.856 = [−7.86, −6.14] A1 Accept in either form, ISW.
Accept [6.14, 7.86].
Accept inequality form.
7
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9231-2021-on-42-q06
Oct/Nov 2021 · Paper 42 · Question 6 · 10 marks
6 H : μ = μ and H : μ > μ B1
0 A B 1 A B
x = 21.2 x2 = 47.92 M1 A1
1 21.22 124
s 2 = 47.92− =0.33067 =
x 9 10 375
1 24.482 9527
s 2 = 53.75− =0.34644 =
y 11 12 27500
9×0.33067+11×0.34644 M1 A1
s2 = = 0.3393
10+12−2
2.12−2.04 M1 A1 Accept 0.321 – 0.322.
t = =0.321
1 1
s +
10 12
Critical value: 1.325 M1 Compare their value with 1.325 and correct FT conclusion.
0.321 < 1.325 accept H .
0
Insufficient evidence that mean of A is greater than mean of B A1 Correct conclusion, in context, following correct work. Level of
uncertainty in language is used.
EITHER: Distributions are normal and equal variances B1 Assumptions consistent with method used.
OR: Distributions are normal Accept ‘population is normal’.
‘Distribution of difference of means is normal’.
Alternative method for question 6
H : μ = μ and H : μ > μ B1
0 A B 1 A B
© UCLES 2021 Page 12 of 13
9231/42 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme October/November 2021
PUBLISHED
Question Answer Marks Guidance
x = 21.2 x2 = 47.92 M1 For one correct unsimplified.
1 21.22 124
s 2 = 47.92− =0.33067 = A1 For both correct.
x 9 10 375
1 24.482 9527
s 2 = 53.75− =0.34644 =
y 11 12 27500
0.33067 0.34644 M1 A1
s2 = + = 0.061936
10 12
t = 2.12−2.04 =0.321 ( 5 ) M1 A1 Accept 0.321 – 0.322.
s
Critical value: 1.325 M1 Compare their value with 1.325 and correct FT conclusion.
0.321 < 1.325 accept H .
0
Insufficient evidence that mean of A is greater than mean of B. A1 Correct conclusion, in context, following correct work. Level of
uncertainty in language is used.
EITHER: Distributions are normal and equal variances B1 Assumptions consistent with method used.
OR: Distributions are normal. Accept ‘population is normal’.
‘Distribution of difference of means is normal’.
10
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9231-2021-on-43-q01
Oct/Nov 2021 · Paper 43 · Question 1 · 7 marks
1(a) 78.5 B1 157
s2 = =8.7222
9 18
s2 M1 Correct expression with a t value.
CI: 25.6±t
10
With t = 1.833 A1 With correct t value.
25.6±1.71 ( 2 ) or [23.9, 27.3] A1 Accept in either form, ISW. Accept inequality form.
4
1(b) 25.6−k M1
t
s2
10
With t = −1.383 A1 Allow 1.383.
26.9 A1 CAO
3
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9231-2021-on-43-q04
Oct/Nov 2021 · Paper 43 · Question 4 · 8 marks
4 H :μ −μ =2 and H :μ −μ >2 B1 Or use of μ.
0 B A 1 B A d
Differences: 5 8 2 0 4 7 −2 1 10 −3 M1 Allow one error.
d =32, d2 =272 M1 Sample mean and variance.
1 322 848
d =3.2, s2 = 272− =18.84 =
9 10 45
3.2−2 M1 A1
t = =0.874
s2
10
Compare with tabular value 1.833: 0.874 < 1.833. M1 Compare their value with 1.833 and conclusion.
Accept H .
0
Insufficient evidence to support claim. A1 Correct conclusion, in context, following correct work.
Level of uncertainty in language is used.
Assumption: population differences are normally distributed B1
8
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9231-2022-mj-41-q01
May/June 2022 · Paper 41 · Question 1 · 8 marks
1(a) Differences: M1 Attempt at differences, allow one error.
0.6 1.3 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.8 –0.2 –0.2 0.4
d 5.6 d2 6.74 M1
1 5.62
s2 6.74 0.4004
9 10
H : 0.4 and H : 0.4 B1 Allow use of
0 B A 1 B A d
0.560.4 M1
t (0.800)
0.4004
10
t =0.7996 (0.800) A1
Critical value = t (9) = 1.383 M1 Compare calculated value with 1.383 and correct FT conclusion.
0.90
Compare: ‘0.7996’ < 1.383
Accept H
0
Insufficient evidence to support manager’s claim. A1 Correct conclusion, in context.
Level of uncertainty in language is used.
7
1(b) Distribution of population differences is normal B1
1
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9231-2022-mj-41-q05
May/June 2022 · Paper 41 · Question 5 · 9 marks
5(a) x44.4, x2 247.48 B1
1 44.42 53 M1
s2 247.48 0.1514
7 8 350
M1 Correct formula with a t value.
44.4 0.1514
CI: 1.895
8 8
1.895 B1 1.895 used.
5.550.2615.29, 5.81 A1 Either form.
5
5(b) H : 5.9 and H : 5.9 B1
0 1
5.555.9 M1
t 2.544
s2
8
Critical value t (7) = 2.365 M1 Compare calculated value with 2.365 and correct FT
0.975
Compare ‘– 2.544’ < – 2.365, reject H . conclusion.
0
Sufficient evidence to support Raman’s claim. A1 Correct conclusion, in context.
Level of uncertainty in language is used.
4
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9231-2022-mj-42-q01
May/June 2022 · Paper 42 · Question 1 · 8 marks
1(a) Differences: M1 Attempt at differences, allow one error.
0.6 1.3 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.8 –0.2 –0.2 0.4
d 5.6 d2 6.74 M1
1 5.62
s2 6.74 0.4004
9 10
H : 0.4 and H : 0.4 B1 Allow use of
0 B A 1 B A d
0.560.4 M1
t (0.800)
0.4004
10
t =0.7996 (0.800) A1
Critical value = t (9) = 1.383 M1 Compare calculated value with 1.383 and correct FT conclusion.
0.90
Compare: ‘0.7996’ < 1.383
Accept H
0
Insufficient evidence to support manager’s claim. A1 Correct conclusion, in context.
Level of uncertainty in language is used.
7
1(b) Distribution of population differences is normal B1
1
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9231-2022-mj-42-q05
May/June 2022 · Paper 42 · Question 5 · 9 marks
5(a) x44.4, x2 247.48 B1
1 44.42 53 M1
s2 247.48 0.1514
7 8 350
M1 Correct formula with a t value.
44.4 0.1514
CI: 1.895
8 8
1.895 B1 1.895 used.
5.550.2615.29, 5.81 A1 Either form.
5
5(b) H : 5.9 and H : 5.9 B1
0 1
5.555.9 M1
t 2.544
s2
8
Critical value t (7) = 2.365 M1 Compare calculated value with 2.365 and correct FT
0.975
Compare ‘– 2.544’ < – 2.365, reject H . conclusion.
0
Sufficient evidence to support Raman’s claim. A1 Correct conclusion, in context.
Level of uncertainty in language is used.
4
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9231-2022-mj-43-q01
May/June 2022 · Paper 43 · Question 1 · 4 marks
1 94.5 B1
s2 13.5
7
s2 M1 Correct formula with a t value, must be 33.8.
CI: 33.82.365
8
B1 2.365 used.
33.83.072 30.7, 36.9 A1 Either form.
4
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9231-2022-mj-43-q06
May/June 2022 · Paper 43 · Question 6 · 12 marks
6(a) 1 11202 M1 40
s 2 31400 1.0256
x 39 40 39
1 13702
s
y
2
49
37600
50
1.2653 62
Both required
49
1.0256 1.2653 M1 2434
s2
40 50 47775
1.03 1.27
Condone s2 or 0.05115.
40 50
s2 0.050947 A1 May be implied by 2.66 as z value.
H : 0 and H : 0 B1
0 a b 1 a b
1120 1370 M1
40 50 0.6
z
s 0.050947
z = 2.66 A1
Critical value of z = 2.326 M1 Compare their z value with 2.326 and correct FT conclusion.
2.66 > 2.326
Reject H
0
Sufficient evidence to support difference in population means oe A1 Correct conclusion, in context.
Level of uncertainty in language is used.
8
© UCLES 2022 Page 12 of 13
6(b) 0.60.25 M1 Condone 1.54.
z
s
z 1 .55 A1
0.9392 – 0.9395 or 0.0605 – 0.0608 A1
6.05 A1 Condone 6.05 – 6.08, accept
4
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9231-2022-on-41-q01
Oct/Nov 2022 · Paper 41 · Question 1 · 7 marks
1 1625 1 16252 M1 775
x = 50 =32.5 s x 2 = 49 53200− 50 =7.908 98
1854 1 18542 A1 3057
y = 60 =30.9 s y 2 = 59 57900− 60 =10.3627 295
Both correct
7.908 10.3627 M1 A1
s2 = + [=0.33087]
50 60
CI: (32.5−30.9)1.96s M1 A1 Correct form with a z-value. Correct with 1.96.
1.61.1274=0.473, 2.73 A1 At least 3sf.
7 Pooled variance used: M1A1 M0A0 M1A1A0 max 4/7
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9231-2022-on-41-q06
Oct/Nov 2022 · Paper 41 · Question 6 · 9 marks
6 1 6.242 M1 19
s 2 = 3.26− =0.001382
x 11 12 13750
19
1 5.12
s 2 = 2.6124− =0.001267 15000
y 9 10
A1 Both correct.
110.001382+90.001267 M1 A1 Find pooled variance.
s2 = =0.001330
12+10−2
6.24 5.1 M1 A1 Use correct formula for t.
−
12 10
t = =0.640
1 1
s +
12 10
H : = H : B1
0 a b 1 a b
Critical value is 2.086 (t (20)) M1 Compare their calculated value with 2.086 and conclusion.
0.975
0.640 < 2.086
Accept H
0
There is insufficient evidence to support inspector’s claim A1 All correct except possibly B1, in context, level of uncertainty in
language.
‘Prove’ scores A0
9 Pooled variance not used: M1A1 M0A0 M0A0 B1 M1A0 max 4/9
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9231-2022-on-42-q01
Oct/Nov 2022 · Paper 42 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1 M1
s2
2.02=x+1.833
10
s2
1.78=x−1.833
10
2.02+1.78
Add, x = =1.90 Add.
2
x=19 A1
M1 Allow 1.372, 1.383, 1.812 instead of 1.833.
s2
Subtract: 2.02−1.78=21.833
10
s2 =0.042859 A1 May be implied.
s = 0.20702
1
(x)2 M1
But s2 = (x2 − )
9 10
192 A1 36.486
x2 =9s2 + =36.5
10
Using 1.645: maximum M1A1 M0A0 M1A0 3/6
6
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9231-2022-on-42-q03
Oct/Nov 2022 · Paper 42 · Question 3 · 8 marks
3 1 75.52 M1 239
s 2 = 115.2− =0.02439
x 49 50 9800
259
1 116.82
s 2 = 172.6− =0.02623 9875
y 79 80
A1 Both correct
0.02439 0.02623 M1 A1 May be implied by 1.75 for z
s2 = + =0.00081565
50 80
75.5 116.8 M1
−
50 80
z=
s
1.75 A1
Compare with 1.645: 1.75 >1.645 M1
Reject null hypothesis Using areas, 0.04 < 0.05.
Sufficient evidence to suggest that population mean in country X A1 Correct conclusion in context, following correct work, level of
is greater than population mean in country Y uncertainty in language.
‘Prove’ gives A0.
8 Pooled variance: z=1.74
M1A1 M0A0M0A0 M1A0 max 3/8
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9231-2022-on-43-q01
Oct/Nov 2022 · Paper 43 · Question 1 · 7 marks
1 1625 1 16252 M1 775
x = 50 =32.5 s x 2 = 49 53200− 50 =7.908 98
1854 1 18542 A1 3057
y = 60 =30.9 s y 2 = 59 57900− 60 =10.3627 295
Both correct
7.908 10.3627 M1 A1
s2 = + [=0.33087]
50 60
CI: (32.5−30.9)1.96s M1 A1 Correct form with a z-value. Correct with 1.96.
1.61.1274=0.473, 2.73 A1 At least 3sf.
7 Pooled variance used: M1A1 M0A0 M1A1A0 max 4/7
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9231-2022-on-43-q06
Oct/Nov 2022 · Paper 43 · Question 6 · 9 marks
6 1 6.242 M1 19
s 2 = 3.26− =0.001382
x 11 12 13750
19
1 5.12
s 2 = 2.6124− =0.001267 15000
y 9 10
A1 Both correct.
110.001382+90.001267 M1 A1 Find pooled variance.
s2 = =0.001330
12+10−2
6.24 5.1 M1 A1 Use correct formula for t.
−
12 10
t = =0.640
1 1
s +
12 10
H : = H : B1
0 a b 1 a b
Critical value is 2.086 (t (20)) M1 Compare their calculated value with 2.086 and conclusion.
0.975
0.640 < 2.086
Accept H
0
There is insufficient evidence to support inspector’s claim A1 All correct except possibly B1, in context, level of uncertainty in
language.
‘Prove’ scores A0
9 Pooled variance not used: M1A1 M0A0 M0A0 B1 M1A0 max 4/9
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9231-2023-mj-41-q01
May/June 2023 · Paper 41 · Question 1 · 4 marks
1 91.2 1 91.22 67 M1 Both.
x 12 7.6 s x 2 11 695.8 12 0.2436 275
0.2436 M1 With a t-value.
CI: 7.6t 0.975
11 12
2.201 seen B1
7.60.3136=7.29, 7.91 A1
4
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9231-2023-mj-41-q02
May/June 2023 · Paper 41 · Question 2 · 8 marks
2 99.6 21.5 43 M1 Both SOI.
x 8.3 s 2 1.9545 or
12 x 11 22
H : H : B1
0 P Q 1 P Q
92.16111.9545 M1 FT FT their 1.9545 only
Pooled estimate =
10122
2.047 (2.05) A1 May be implied, allow 2.04
9.128.3 M1 FT FT their pooled estimate
t
1 1
2.047
10 12
1.339 (or 1.338) A1 Accept 1.34
'1.339'1.725 M1 Compare with correct tabular value 1.725 and
Accept H / not significant conclusion without context. Condone ‘reject H ’.
0 1
Insufficient evidence to suggest that the (mean) time taken at P is greater than A1 Correct conclusion in context, following correct
the (mean) time taken at Q. work, level of uncertainty in language (not ‘prove’,
not ‘there is no evidence’), no contradictions.
A0 if H and H reversed.
0 1
8
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9231-2023-mj-42-q01
May/June 2023 · Paper 42 · Question 1 · 4 marks
1 91.2 1 91.22 67 M1 Both.
x 12 7.6 s x 2 11 695.8 12 0.2436 275
0.2436 M1 With a t-value.
CI: 7.6t 0.975
11 12
2.201 seen B1
7.60.3136=7.29, 7.91 A1
4
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9231-2023-mj-42-q02
May/June 2023 · Paper 42 · Question 2 · 8 marks
2 99.6 21.5 43 M1 Both SOI.
x 8.3 s 2 1.9545 or
12 x 11 22
H : H : B1
0 P Q 1 P Q
92.16111.9545 M1 FT FT their 1.9545 only
Pooled estimate =
10122
2.047 (2.05) A1 May be implied, allow 2.04
9.128.3 M1 FT FT their pooled estimate
t
1 1
2.047
10 12
1.339 (or 1.338) A1 Accept 1.34
'1.339'1.725 M1 Compare with correct tabular value 1.725 and
Accept H / not significant conclusion without context. Condone ‘reject H ’.
0 1
Insufficient evidence to suggest that the (mean) time taken at P is greater than A1 Correct conclusion in context, following correct
the (mean) time taken at Q. work, level of uncertainty in language (not ‘prove’,
not ‘there is no evidence’), no contradictions.
A0 if H and H reversed.
0 1
8
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Official mark scheme pages: 7 · source PDF URL
9231-2023-mj-43-q02
May/June 2023 · Paper 43 · Question 2 · 6 marks
2 M1 SOI
s2 s2
x 1.771 1.14 or x 1.771 1.11 Allow incorrect t-value, not z-value.
14 14
1 B1 Does not depend on use of a t-value.
[Add: x 1.141.11 1.125] x15.75
2
s2 11.141.11 M1 Allow incorrect t-value, but not a z-value.
Subtract or substitute:
14 2 1.771
s2 0.001004 or s = 0.0316[9] A1 450
, implied by correct final answer.
448063
x2 M1 OE
x2 13s2
14
x2 17.7(3) A1 CWO
6
© UCLES 2023 Page 7 of 13
Official mark scheme pages: 7 · source PDF URL
9231-2023-mj-43-q04
May/June 2023 · Paper 43 · Question 4 · 9 marks
4(a) H : H : B1
0 x y 1 x y
1 1642 B1
s 2 338.1 0.02405 and
x 79 80
19 379
Both. Implied by , or 3sf.
1 124.82 790 14750
s 2 261.1 0.02569
y 59 60
0.02405 0.02569 M1
s2
80 60
s2 0.0007289 or s 0.026998 or 0.0270 A1 Implied by z 1.11
164.0 124.8 M1 FT their value for s.
80 60
z
s
1.11 A1
‘1.11’ < 1.282 M1 Compare with correct z-value 1.282 and consistent signs. Condone
Accept H / not significant ‘reject H ’.
0 1
Using probabilities, P(Z >1.11) = 0.1333 > 0.1.
Insufficient evidence to support the inspector’s suspicion/ A1 Correct conclusion in context, following correct work, level of
Insufficient evidence that the (mean) lengths of rods from uncertainty in language (not ‘prove’, not ‘there is no evidence’),
machine X are shorter than the (mean) lengths of rods from no contradictions.
machine Y e.g. proves that the inspector is incorrect scores A0
A0 if hypotheses wrong way round.
8
© UCLES 2023 Page 9 of 13
4(b) Large sample sizes OR central limit theorem applies. B1
1
Question Answer Marks Guidance
Official mark scheme pages: 9, 10 · source PDF URL
9231-2023-on-41-q01
Oct/Nov 2023 · Paper 41 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1 H : =4.22 H : 4.22 B1
0 1
42.05 1 42.052 13 M1
x = =4.205, s2 = 176.83− = = 0.0010833
10 9 10 12000
4.205−4.22 M1 Their 4.205, their s2.
t =
s2
10
t=−1.44 A1 Condone sign.
Tabular value = 1.833: ‘1.44’ < 1.833, accept H M1 Compare their value with correct tabular value, signs
0
consistent, allow ‘not significant’.
There is insufficient evidence to support Maya’s belief. A1 Correct conclusion in context, following correct work,
level of uncertainty in language.
A0 if hypotheses wrong way round or missing.
6
© UCLES 2023 Page 6 of 13
Official mark scheme pages: 6 · source PDF URL
9231-2023-on-41-q03
Oct/Nov 2023 · Paper 41 · Question 3 · 8 marks
3(a) H : − =2 H : − 2 B1 May use , but must be consistent with direction of
0 B E 1 B E d
differences found.
M1 Differences, at most 2 errors.
8 8 15 –2 –3 20 –3 0 5 4
1 522 2728 M1 Their values but must see 9 and 10 used correctly.
d =52, d2 =816, s2 = 816− = =60.62
9 10 45
52 M1
−2
10
t =
s2
10
t=1.29967, 1 .30 A1
Tabular value = 2.262. ‘1.30’ < 2.262, accept H M1 Allow ‘not significant’.
0
Insufficient evidence to suggest that cholesterol level has reduced by more A1 CWO. Correct conclusion in context, following correct
than 2. work, level of uncertainty in language.
A0 if hypotheses wrong way round or missing.
7
3(b) Population differences are normally distributed B1
1
© UCLES 2023 Page 8 of 13
Official mark scheme pages: 8 · source PDF URL
9231-2023-on-42-q01
Oct/Nov 2023 · Paper 42 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1 243.8 1219 384.9 3849 B1 Implied by correct sor pooled estimate
s2 = = =4.132 , s2 = = =5.201
x 59 295 y 74 740 243.8+384.9 =4.727
60+75−2
4.132 5.201 M1 Using their sample variances.
s2 = + =0.1382 or s=0.3718
Pooled estimate M0.
60 75
A1
6345 7614 M1 With a z-value
CI: − 1.96'0.3718'
60 75
A1 With 1.96 (with their s)
6345 7614 1 1
Pooled − 1.962.174 +
60 75 60 75
3.50, 4.96 or (3.5, 4.96) A1 4.230.729 is A0, condone 4.96, 3.5 etc.
6
© UCLES 2023 Page 6 of 13
Official mark scheme pages: 6 · source PDF URL
9231-2023-on-42-q05
Oct/Nov 2023 · Paper 42 · Question 5 · 16 marks
5(a) H : population medians are equal or m = m B1 Do not accept ‘difference between population
0 x y
H : population median for X < population median for Y or m < m medians < 0’ without X or Y oe specified.
1 x y
M1 Rankings, allow at most 3 errors.
X Y
4.0 1 4.5 2
4.6 3 4.9 6
4.7 4 5.1 8
4.8 5 5.3 10
5.0 7 5.4 11
5.2 9 5.7 13
5.6 12 5.9 15
5.8 14 6.3 16
6.4 17
Sum: 55 98
Test statistic = 55 A1
Tabular value for m=8, n=9 is 54 B1
‘55’ > ‘54’, accept H /not significant M1 Ft their ‘55’ Must come from ranks.
0
Ft their ‘54’, must come from table.
Insufficient evidence to support manager’s claim. A1 Correct conclusion in context, following correct
Insufficient evidence to suggest that the median time of machine X is less than the work, level of uncertainty in language.
median time of machine Y. A0 if hypotheses the wrong way round or
missing.
6
© UCLES 2023 Page 12 of 13
5(b) H : 𝜇 = 𝜇 H : 𝜇 < 𝜇 B1
0 𝑥 𝑦 1 𝑥 𝑦
x=39.7 x2 =199.33 y=49.5 y2 =275.47 B1
1 39.72
s
x
2 =
7
199.33−
8
=0.33125
1 49.52 B1
s2
y
=
8
275.47−
9
=0.4025
70.33125+80.4025 M1
Pooled variance s2 =
8+9−2
0.36925 A1
39.7 −49.5 M1
t = 8 9
s 1+1
8 9
t=−1.82 A1
Tabular value = 1.753: 1.82 > 1.753 M1
Reject H , sufficient evidence that mean for machine X is less than mean for machine A1 CWO
0
Y. Correct conclusion in context, following correct
work, level of uncertainty in language.
9
5(c) t-test is assuming a normal distribution, and with equal variances. This may not be B1 Not specific to data in question.
true. So, no reason to expect results to be the same. Mention of normal distribution is not enough.
Outliers affect part (b) but not part (a).
1
© UCLES 2023 Page 13 of 13
Official mark scheme pages: 12, 13 · source PDF URL
9231-2023-on-43-q01
Oct/Nov 2023 · Paper 43 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1 H : =4.22 H : 4.22 B1
0 1
42.05 1 42.052 13 M1
x = =4.205, s2 = 176.83− = = 0.0010833
10 9 10 12000
4.205−4.22 M1 Their 4.205, their s2.
t =
s2
10
t=−1.44 A1 Condone sign.
Tabular value = 1.833: ‘1.44’ < 1.833, accept H M1 Compare their value with correct tabular value, signs
0
consistent, allow ‘not significant’.
There is insufficient evidence to support Maya’s belief. A1 Correct conclusion in context, following correct work,
level of uncertainty in language.
A0 if hypotheses wrong way round or missing.
6
© UCLES 2023 Page 6 of 13
Official mark scheme pages: 6 · source PDF URL
9231-2023-on-43-q03
Oct/Nov 2023 · Paper 43 · Question 3 · 8 marks
3(a) H : − =2 H : − 2 B1 May use , but must be consistent with direction of
0 B E 1 B E d
differences found.
M1 Differences, at most 2 errors.
8 8 15 –2 –3 20 –3 0 5 4
1 522 2728 M1 Their values but must see 9 and 10 used correctly.
d =52, d2 =816, s2 = 816− = =60.62
9 10 45
52 M1
−2
10
t =
s2
10
t=1.29967, 1 .30 A1
Tabular value = 2.262. ‘1.30’ < 2.262, accept H M1 Allow ‘not significant’.
0
Insufficient evidence to suggest that cholesterol level has reduced by more A1 CWO. Correct conclusion in context, following correct
than 2. work, level of uncertainty in language.
A0 if hypotheses wrong way round or missing.
7
3(b) Population differences are normally distributed B1
1
© UCLES 2023 Page 8 of 13
Official mark scheme pages: 8 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-mj-41-q01
May/June 2024 · Paper 41 · Question 1 · 4 marks
1 s2 941.5 B1 72.423.
13
s2 M1 A1 Correct formula with a t value.
CI: 42.82.160 2.160 seen in a CI formula for A1.
14
[37.9, 47.7] A1 (37.9, 47.7) A1
37.9'x'47.7 A1 (ignore symbol used inside
the inequality)
Condone [47.7, 37.9] A1
Final answer 42.84.91 A0
4
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2024 Page 6 of 15
Official mark scheme pages: 6 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-mj-41-q06
May/June 2024 · Paper 41 · Question 6 · 8 marks
6(a) Signed differences: M1 Allow one error, must be signed differences.
4.1 1 .1 0.4 0.2 3.9 2.6 0.6 3.5 0.1 0
1 14.52 M1
d 14.5, d2 52.81 s2 52.81 3.532
9 10
H : 1 B1
0 B A
Accept H : 1, H : 1.
H 1 : B A 1 0 d 1 d
1.451 M1 The – 1 must be present in the numerator.
t
s2
10
0.757 A1
Critical value is 1.383: ‘0.757’ < 1.383 Accept H M1 ‘0.757’ must come from a paired sample t-
0
calculation, 1.383 must be correct
Correct ft conclusion for their 0.757 and 1.383
Condone Reject H
1
‘Accept H ’ can be implied by a conclusion that is
0
consistent with their 0.757 and 1.383
Insufficient evidence to support Jade’s claim A1 Correct work only, ignoring their hypotheses,
conclusion in context with level of uncertainty in
language. Not ‘prove’
Condone ‘no sufficient’ ‘not enough’
Do not accept statements such as ‘there is
sufficient evidence to suggest…..’
7
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2024 Page 13 of 15
6(b) Distribution of population differences is normal B1 Underlying distribution of differences normal B1
‘data’ implies B0.
1
Official mark scheme pages: 13, 14 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-mj-42-q01
May/June 2024 · Paper 42 · Question 1 · 4 marks
1 s2 941.5 B1 72.423.
13
s2 M1 A1 Correct formula with a t value.
CI: 42.82.160 2.160 seen in a CI formula for A1.
14
[37.9, 47.7] A1 (37.9, 47.7) A1
37.9'x'47.7 A1 (ignore symbol used inside
the inequality)
Condone [47.7, 37.9] A1
Final answer 42.84.91 A0
4
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2024 Page 6 of 15
Official mark scheme pages: 6 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-mj-42-q06
May/June 2024 · Paper 42 · Question 6 · 8 marks
6(a) Signed differences: M1 Allow one error, must be signed differences.
4.1 1 .1 0.4 0.2 3.9 2.6 0.6 3.5 0.1 0
1 14.52 M1
d 14.5, d2 52.81 s2 52.81 3.532
9 10
H : 1 B1
0 B A
Accept H : 1, H : 1.
H 1 : B A 1 0 d 1 d
1.451 M1 The – 1 must be present in the numerator.
t
s2
10
0.757 A1
Critical value is 1.383: ‘0.757’ < 1.383 Accept H M1 ‘0.757’ must come from a paired sample t-
0
calculation, 1.383 must be correct
Correct ft conclusion for their 0.757 and 1.383
Condone Reject H
1
‘Accept H ’ can be implied by a conclusion that is
0
consistent with their 0.757 and 1.383
Insufficient evidence to support Jade’s claim A1 Correct work only, ignoring their hypotheses,
conclusion in context with level of uncertainty in
language. Not ‘prove’
Condone ‘no sufficient’ ‘not enough’
Do not accept statements such as ‘there is
sufficient evidence to suggest…..’
7
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2024 Page 13 of 15
6(b) Distribution of population differences is normal B1 Underlying distribution of differences normal B1
‘data’ implies B0.
1
Official mark scheme pages: 13, 14 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-mj-43-q02
May/June 2024 · Paper 43 · Question 2 · 7 marks
2(a) 1 M1
x 68.6664.2266.44
2
x1266.44797.28 A1 May come from use of incorrect t value.
Accept AWRT 797.
ts 1 M1 Must be with a t value (not z value).
68.6664.22
12 2
With t 2.718 gives s2 8.0055 A1 Accept AWRT 8.01; may be recovered by final answer exactly 53059(.34).
s 2.8294.
1
x2 M1 Must see an expression for x2.
Use s2 x2 to find an
11 12
expression for x2
x2 53059 A1 AWRT 53100 but not from wrong working.
6
2(b) Population is normally distributed B1 Underlying distribution is normal B1.
Pulse rates are normal B1.
Population mean is normally distributed B0.
(Underlying) data is normal B0.
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2024 Page 8 of 15
Official mark scheme pages: 8 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-mj-43-q06
May/June 2024 · Paper 43 · Question 6 · 10 marks
6(a) 1 10802 M1 152
s 2 23480 (= 3.102) 9
x 49 50 10
3
1 9402 Both.
s 2 22220 (= 3.333)
y 39 40
3.102 3.333 M1
s2 0.1454
50 40
s2 2137 0.1454 A1
14700
1080 940 M1 B1 Use of correct formula with a z value.
CI: 1.645 s2 or
B1 for 1.645 ( accept 1.64 or 1.65) used in CI formula.
50 40
940 1080
1.645 s2
40 50
1.27, 2.53 or [–2.53, –1.27] A1 (1.27, 2.53) A1.
1.27 2.53 A1 (ignore symbol used inside the inequality).
Y X
Condone [2.53, 1.27] or [–1.27, –2.53] A1.
Final answer 1.90.627 A0.
Pooled estimate: max score M1 M0A0 M1B1A0.
First M1 for correct form of pooled estimate.
6
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2024 Page 14 of 15
6(b) 1.91.1 M1 1.91.1
z z or 7.87 implies M1.
s s
2.098 A1 AWRT 2.10
‘2.098’ > 1.28(2) Reject H M1 ‘2.098’ from their attempt at z, 1.28(2) must be correct.
0
Consistent signs in comparison.
or
Φ2.098
0.9821 > 0.9 Reject H
FT conclusion from their 2.098.
0
Condone ‘Accept H ’.
1
or 1
Φ2.098
= 0.0179 < 0.1 Reject H 0 ‘Reject H 0 ’ can be implied by a conclusion in context that is consistent with their
2.098.
Sufficient evidence to suggest that the lengths of A1 Correct work only, conclusion in context with level of uncertainty in language. Not
tails of wallabies in region Y are, on average, ‘prove’ or equivalent.
more than 1.1 cm longer than the tails of
wallabies in region X Accept ‘enough evidence’.
Condone ‘some evidence’.
4 Note that it is possible to use part (a) but it must be made clear explicitly that
rejection at 5% level implies rejection at 10% level.
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2024 Page 15 of 15
Official mark scheme pages: 14, 15 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-on-41-q01
Oct/Nov 2024 · Paper 41 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1 1 16542 B1 3392
s 2 = 54850− =2.769
x 49 50 1225
4.95 2.769 M1 A1
s2 = + =0.1379
60 50
1654 M1 Correct formula with a z value.
CI: 35.6− 1.96s
50
B1 1.96 seen.
1.79, 3.25 A1 Accept inequality.
6
Question Answer Marks Guidance
Official mark scheme pages: 6 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-on-41-q06
Oct/Nov 2024 · Paper 41 · Question 6 · 8 marks
6 1 64.22 M1 851
s 2 = 519.46− =0.607857
x 7 8 1400
17
1 71.12 , both.
s 2 = 567.13− =0.680 25
y 8 9
80.680 + 70.607857 M1 A1 1939
s2 = =0.64633 Correct formula for pooled variance used, .
9+8−2 3000
H : − =0 B1
0 X Y
H : − 0
1 X Y
8.025−7.9 0.125 M1 A1 Dependent on pooled variance being used
t = = =0.320
1 1 0.3906
s +
8 9
‘0.320’ < 1.341 accept H M1 Compare with 1.341 and conclusion
0
Insufficient evidence to support Ansal’s suspicion A1 Correct work only, except possibly B1, in
Insufficient evidence to suggest that wingspan from region X is greater than context, level of uncertainty in language
wingspan from region Y.
8
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2024 Page 11 of 11
Official mark scheme pages: 11 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-on-42-q01
Oct/Nov 2024 · Paper 42 · Question 1 · 4 marks
1 x=30.6 x2 =120.52 M1
139
1 30.62 With their x, x2, .
s2 = 120.52− =0.49643 280
7 8
30.6 s2 M1 Use correct formula with a t value.
CI = 1.895
8 8
B1 1.895 seen.
3.35, 4.30 A1 Accept with inequality signs or open brackets.
.
4
Question Answer Marks Guidance
Official mark scheme pages: 6 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-on-42-q05
Oct/Nov 2024 · Paper 42 · Question 5 · 9 marks
5 1 30.82 B1 237
s 2 = 29.0− =0.055765
x 34 35 4250
1488
1 62.42
s 2 = 76.8− =0.201763 7375
y 59 60
Allow B1 for correct expression for pooled
variance.
0.055765 0.201763 M1 Pooled variance M0A0.
s2 = + =0.004956
A1
35 60
H : = B1
0 x y
H
1: x y
30.8 62.4 M1
−
35 60
z=
A1 Pooled variance M0A0.
s
0.25
− = −2.27
0.004956
Corresponding probability is 0.9885 M1 FT their z .
One tail: 100(1−'0.9885')=1.15 M1 Allow for 1 – ‘0.9885’.
1.15 A1 Allow ⩾.
9
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2024 Page 11 of 13
Official mark scheme pages: 11 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-on-43-q01
Oct/Nov 2024 · Paper 43 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1 1 16542 B1 3392
s 2 = 54850− =2.769
x 49 50 1225
4.95 2.769 M1 A1
s2 = + =0.1379
60 50
1654 M1 Correct formula with a z value.
CI: 35.6− 1.96s
50
B1 1.96 seen.
1.79, 3.25 A1 Accept inequality.
6
Question Answer Marks Guidance
Official mark scheme pages: 6 · source PDF URL
9231-2024-on-43-q06
Oct/Nov 2024 · Paper 43 · Question 6 · 8 marks
6 1 64.22 M1 851
s 2 = 519.46− =0.607857
x 7 8 1400
17
1 71.12 , both.
s 2 = 567.13− =0.680 25
y 8 9
80.680 + 70.607857 M1 A1 1939
s2 = =0.64633 Correct formula for pooled variance used, .
9+8−2 3000
H : − =0 B1
0 X Y
H : − 0
1 X Y
8.025−7.9 0.125 M1 A1 Dependent on pooled variance being used
t = = =0.320
1 1 0.3906
s +
8 9
‘0.320’ < 1.341 accept H M1 Compare with 1.341 and conclusion
0
Insufficient evidence to support Ansal’s suspicion A1 Correct work only, except possibly B1, in
Insufficient evidence to suggest that wingspan from region X is greater than context, level of uncertainty in language
wingspan from region Y.
8
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2024 Page 11 of 11
Official mark scheme pages: 11 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-mj-41-q01
May/June 2025 · Paper 41 · Question 1 · 7 marks
1 H : = H : B1 If in words, must contain ‘population means’.
0 x y 1 x y
Allow H : =0, H : 0.
0 d 1 d
s2 =103.218... M1 SOI, one unbiased estimate correct to 3sf or
x
better.
s2 =171.139...
y Do not accept biased estimates (102.4, 169.0).
s2 s2 A1 A0 for pooled s .
x + y =2.999 Accept 3, 3.0, 3.00.
120 80
May be implied by z=3.03.
10470−6560 M1 Value of z obtained using correct form with their
z= 120 80 =3.03
s2 s2 s x 2 and their s y 2.
x + y
Use of pooled s scores M0 A0.
120 80
A1 Use of pooled s scores M0 A0.
'3.03' > 2.576, reject H (significant). M1 Compare their z with 2.576 and appropriate
0
OR conclusion (may be in terms of H ).
1
P(Z '3.03')=0.001220.005, reject H (significant). Reject H 0 can be implied by an attempt at an
0
appropriate conclusion in context.
May see 0.002440.01, reject H (significant).
0
Allow M1 for comparison of their 3.03 with
2.326 and appropriate conclusion.
There is sufficient evidence to suggest the mean spend of customers is different on A1 Correct conclusion in context from correct
weekends compared to weekdays. working ignoring hypotheses.
Level of uncertainty in language used (for
example, not ‘prove’).
Must refer to mean or average spend.
7
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 9 of 16
Official mark scheme pages: 9 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-mj-41-q04
May/June 2025 · Paper 41 · Question 4 · 7 marks
4(a) (x−x)2 =40104− 1 6122 =2649.6 M1 Either expression, may be embedded.
10 May be implied, for example, by 294.4 or
(y−y)2 =27460−14442 =2818 402.57 seen.
8
2649.6+2818 A1 SOI
s2 = =341.725
p 10+8−2
(61.2−55.5)2.120 's2' (1 +1)=5.72.128.7686 B1 2.120, SOI.
p 10 8
M1 Correct form, must be a t value.
A1 Correct un-simplified confidence interval, SOI.
−12.9, 24.3 A1 Accept with inequality signs or open brackets
or −24.3, 12.9 from Y −X .
Condone 24.3, −12.9.
Do not accept 5.718.6.
6
4(b) Because zero lies inside the confidence interval. B1
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 13 of 16
Official mark scheme pages: 13 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-mj-42-q01
May/June 2025 · Paper 42 · Question 1 · 7 marks
1 H : = H : B1 If in words, must contain ‘population means’.
0 x y 1 x y
Allow H : =0, H : 0.
0 d 1 d
s2 =103.218... M1 SOI, one unbiased estimate correct to 3sf or
x
better.
s2 =171.139...
y Do not accept biased estimates (102.4, 169.0).
s2 s2 A1 A0 for pooled s.
x + y =2.999 Accept 3, 3.0, 3.00.
120 80
May be implied by z=3.03.
10470−6560 M1 Value of z obtained using correct form with their
z= 120 80 =3.03
s2 s2
s
x
2 and their s
y
2.
x + y
Use of pooled s scores M0 A0.
120 80
A1 Use of pooled s scores M0 A0.
'3.03' > 2.576, reject H (significant). M1 Compare their z with 2.576 and appropriate
0
OR conclusion (may be in terms of H ).
1
P(Z '3.03')=0.001220.005, reject H (significant). Reject H 0 can be implied by an attempt at an
0
appropriate conclusion in context.
May see 0.002440.01, reject H (significant).
0
Allow M1 for comparison of their 3.03 with
2.326 and appropriate conclusion.
There is sufficient evidence to suggest the mean spend of customers is different on A1 Correct conclusion in context from correct
weekends compared to weekdays. working ignoring hypotheses.
Level of uncertainty in language used (for
example, not ‘prove’).
Must refer to mean or average spend.
7
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 9 of 15
Official mark scheme pages: 9 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-mj-42-q04
May/June 2025 · Paper 42 · Question 4 · 7 marks
4(a) (x−x)2 =40104− 1 6122 =2649.6 M1 Either expression, may be embedded.
10 May be implied, for example, by 294.4 or
(y−y)2 =27460−14442 =2818 402.57 seen.
8
2649.6+2818 A1 SOI
s2 = =341.725
p 10+8−2
(61.2−55.5)2.120 's2' (1 +1)=5.72.128.7686 B1 2.120, SOI.
p 10 8
M1 Correct form, must be a t value.
A1 Correct un-simplified confidence interval, SOI.
−12.9, 24.3 A1 Accept with inequality signs or open brackets
or −24.3, 12.9 from Y −X .
Condone 24.3, −12.9.
Do not accept 5.718.6.
6
4(b) Because zero lies inside the confidence interval. B1
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 13 of 15
Official mark scheme pages: 13 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-mj-43-q02
May/June 2025 · Paper 43 · Question 2 · 7 marks
2 s2 = 1 ( 720−1682) =0.36923 = 24 M1 Correct method to find one unbiased estimate,
x 39 40 65 may be un-simplified.
s2 = 1
( 900−2282)
=0.56949 =168
y 59 60 295
A1 Both unbiased estimates correct to 3sf or better.
s2 = '0.36923'+ '0.56949' M1 M0 for pooled estimate.
40 60
s2 =0.0187 = 359 A1 SOI
19175
CI= (168−228) 1.645's' M1 Correct form with any z-value, FT their s.
40 60
B1 1.645 (accept 1.64 or 1.65) used in CI formula.
0.175, 0.625 A1 Accept with inequality signs or open brackets.
Condone 0.625,0.175.
Do not accept 0.40.225.
7
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 10 of 16
Official mark scheme pages: 10 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-mj-43-q05
May/June 2025 · Paper 43 · Question 5 · 8 marks
5(a) H : − = k , H : − k B1 Allow H : = k , H : k if defined or
0 B A 1 B A 0 d 1 d
consistent with working.
Differences, d : 19, 17, 8, 16, 9, 23, 6, 5. M1 Allow one error.
d =103, d2 =1641, M1 Sample mean and variance for differences.
d =12.875, s2 = 1 ( 1641−1 ( 1032)) =44.982 = 2519
d 7 8 56
12.875−k M1 Correct form for t with their d and their s2.
t= d
s2 M0 if k is omitted.
d
8
A1
12.875−k M1 Accept ≥, > or =.
≥1.895
s2
d
8
0≤ k≤8.38 A1 Accept k8.38.
7
5(b) Population of differences are normally distributed. B1 Accept underlying distribution or population.
B0 for "population mean normally distributed".
B0 for "(underlying) data is normal".
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 14 of 16
Official mark scheme pages: 14 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-mj-44-q01
May/June 2025 · Paper 44 · Question 1 · 4 marks
1 10.24−10.6 M1 0.52
t= Must be in correct form, allow in denominator.
0.52 12
12
()1.729 A1 CWO, AWRT ()1.73.
'−1.729 ' −1.363 (or 1.729 1.363), reject H (significant). M1 Compare their t with 1.363 (consistent signs) and appropriate
0
conclusion (may be in terms of H ).
1
Reject H can be implied by an attempt at an appropriate
0
conclusion in context.
Allow M1 for comparison of their t with 1.356 , 1.796, or
1.782 (consistent signs) and appropriate conclusion.
Sufficient evidence to support/suggest that the [population] mean A1 Correct conclusion in context from correct working ignoring
is less than 10.6. hypotheses.
Level of uncertainty in language used (for example, not ‘prove’).
Allow or mean for population mean.
4
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 9 of 15
Official mark scheme pages: 9 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-mj-44-q06
May/June 2025 · Paper 44 · Question 6 · 13 marks
6(a) x=30.4 B1
2.262 B1 2.26 or 2.262 seen.
10(3.13−2.95) M1 Subtracting, or substituting, to find an equation involving s .
x
Subtract: s =
x (22.262) Allow M1 for any of the following t values seen instead of 2.262:
1.812, 1.833, 2.228 or 3.690.
s2 = 0.0158 or s =0.126 A1 FT FT their 2.262 following M1.
x x
Implied by AWRT 92.6 following M1.
30.42 A1 FT FT their 2.262.
x2 =90.0158307+ =92.6 CWO
10
5
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 14 of 15
6(b) H : = B1 If in words, must contain ‘population means’.
0 Y X
Allow H : =0, H : 0 if defined or consistent with
H : 0 d 1 d
1 Y X
working.
24.82 M1 May be embedded, for example s2 = 1 ( 76.98−1 ( 24.82)) .
76.98− y 7 8
8
9s2 +7s2 M1 Correct form using their s2 and their s2, may be embedded.
s2 = x y =0.015155 x y
p 10+8−2
A1 SOI, can be implied by any t that rounds to 1.02 or 1.03.
3.04−3.1 M1 Correct form using their s .
t= =−1.028 p
s 1 +1
p 10 8
A1 AWRT 1.02 or 1.03implies M1 A1.
[18 degrees of freedom, so critical value is 1.746.] M1 Compare their t with 1.746 (consistent signs) and appropriate
'1.028 '1.746, accept H (not significant). conclusion (may be in terms of H ).
0 1
Accept H can be implied by an attempt at an appropriate
0
conclusion in context.
Allow M1 for comparison of their t with 1.740 or 2.120and
appropriate conclusion.
Insufficient evidence to support Mona’s claim. A1 Correct conclusion in context from correct working ignoring
hypotheses.
Level of uncertainty in language used (for example, not ‘prove’).
8
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 15 of 15
Official mark scheme pages: 14, 15 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-on-41-q01
Oct/Nov 2025 · Paper 41 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1(a) s2 =1 ( '71314'−'844'2) =134 =8.933 M1 Correct expression, implied by AWRT 8.93.
9 10 15
2.262 B1 2.262 or 2.26 seen.
M1 Correct form, must be a t-value.
'844''2.262' '8.933'
10 10
[82.3, 86.5] A1 Accept with inequality signs or open brackets.
Condone [86.5, 82.3].
Do not accept 84.42.1.
The distribution of estimates of angles is normal. B1
OR
The estimates are a random sample from some population.
OR
The estimates are independent.
OR
Underlying distribution is normal.
5
1(b) Population unlikely to be normal as is close to right-angle / data B1 Must refer to the context.
is skewed.
OR
Estimates may not be independent, for example due to collusion.
OR
No indication that sample is random.
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 9 of 16
Official mark scheme pages: 9 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-on-41-q03
Oct/Nov 2025 · Paper 41 · Question 3 · 4 marks
3 (x−x)2
=90.36=3.24
B1
'16.6'2 M1 Can be implied by 0.172 ( = 43 ) or 0.688 ( = 86).
'55.8'− 250 125
5
3.24+0.688 M1 Correct use of formula for pooled variance using their values.
(=0.302)
10+5−2
s=0.550 A1 CAO
4
Question Answer Marks Guidance
Official mark scheme pages: 11 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-on-41-q06
Oct/Nov 2025 · Paper 41 · Question 6 · 9 marks
6(a) H : = H: B1 If in words, must contain ‘population means’.
0 B A 1 B A
Allow H : =0,H: 0 if defined or consistent with working.
0 d 1 d
Differences: 5, 0, −1, 6,1 , −2, 8, 7, 15 M1 Attempt at signed differences.
s2 =1 ( '405'−'39'2) =29.5 M1 Correct form for s2, note that s =5.43.
d 8 9 d d
'39' M1 Correct form.
9 =2.393
'29.5'
9 A1 AWRT 2.39.
'2.393'1.860, reject H / significant. M1 Compare their 2.393 with 1.860 and appropriate result (may be in
0
terms of H ).
1
Allow M1 for comparison from 2-sample test using 1.746.
Test result may be implied by an attempt at an appropriate
conclusion in context ignoring hypotheses.
Sufficient evidence to suggest new training programme results in A1 Correct conclusion from correct working ignoring hypotheses.
reduced times. In context.
OR Level of uncertainty in language is used (for example, not ‘prove’).
Sufficient evidence to support the coach’s belief. Do not accept statements such as “there is insufficient evidence to
suggest…”.
7
6(b) The population of differences may not be normally distributed. B1 Must mention population/distribution and differences.
The population of differences may not be symmetrical (and hence Accept “the sample may not be random” or “times may not be
not normal). independent”.
1
6(c) A Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank test. B1 Must refer to pairs / paired.
OR A paired-sample sign test. Accept “paired Wilcoxon test” or “paired sign test”.
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 14 of 16
Official mark scheme pages: 14 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-on-42-q02
Oct/Nov 2025 · Paper 42 · Question 2 · 7 marks
2(a) s2 = 1 ( '476117'−'2390'2) = 326 =9.8788 M1 Correct expression, implied by AWRT 9.88.
11 12 33
3.106 B1 3.106 or 3.11 seen.
'2390''3.106' '9.8788'
M1 Correct form, must be a t-value.
12 12
196, 202 A1 Accept with inequality signs or open brackets.
Condone [202, 196].
Do not accept 1993.
4
2(b) −1.796 B1 1.796 or 1.80 seen.
'199.17'−k '199.17'−k M1 Correct form, must be a t-value, consistent signs.
'−1.796' or '1.796' Condone non-strict inequality.
'9.8788' '9.8788'
12 12
200.8 A1 Accept 200.7, 200 or 201 from correct working.
Condone final answer of the form k < 200.8 OE.
Condone non-strict inequalities.
3
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 10 of 15
Official mark scheme pages: 10 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-on-42-q05
Oct/Nov 2025 · Paper 42 · Question 5 · 9 marks
5 H : = H: B1 If in words, must have population means.
0 A B 1 A B
Allow H : =0 , H : 0.
0 d 1 d
'1331848'−'3264'2 [=136] M1 OE, may be implied by s2 =19.43.
8 A
Biased estimate of 17 earns M0 unless recovered.
'964964'−'2406'2 [=158] M1 OE, may be implied by s2 =31.6.
6 B
Biased estimate of 26 earns M0 unless recovered.
'136'+'158' M1 Correct form using their values, may be embedded.
s2 = = 24.5
p 8+6−2
A1 OE, for example 49 .
2
'3264'−'2406' M1 Correct form using their values.
t= 8 6 =2.62
's ' 1+1
p 8 6 A1 AWRT 2.62.
'2.62'2.179, reject H / significant. M1 Compare their 2.62 with 2.179 and appropriate result (may be in terms
0
of H ).
1
Test result may be implied by an attempt at an appropriate conclusion
in context ignoring hypotheses.
Sufficient evidence to suggest that there is a difference in the A1 Correct conclusion from correct working ignoring hypotheses.
mean tensile strengths of steel rods produced by the two In context.
machines. Level of uncertainty in language is used (for example, not ‘prove’).
Allow “(Some/enough) evidence that / to show / conclude that…”.
Do not accept statements such as “there is insufficient evidence to
suggest…”.
9
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 13 of 15
Official mark scheme pages: 13 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-on-43-q01
Oct/Nov 2025 · Paper 43 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1(a) s2 =1 ( '71314'−'844'2) =134 =8.933 M1 Correct expression, implied by AWRT 8.93.
9 10 15
2.262 B1 2.262 or 2.26 seen.
M1 Correct form, must be a t-value.
'844''2.262' '8.933'
10 10
[82.3, 86.5] A1 Accept with inequality signs or open brackets.
Condone [86.5, 82.3].
Do not accept 84.42.1.
The distribution of estimates of angles is normal. B1
OR
The estimates are a random sample from some population.
OR
The estimates are independent.
OR
Underlying distribution is normal.
5
1(b) Population unlikely to be normal as is close to right-angle / data B1 Must refer to the context.
is skewed.
OR
Estimates may not be independent, for example due to collusion.
OR
No indication that sample is random.
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 9 of 16
Official mark scheme pages: 9 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-on-43-q03
Oct/Nov 2025 · Paper 43 · Question 3 · 4 marks
3 (x−x)2
=90.36=3.24
B1
'16.6'2 M1 Can be implied by 0.172 ( = 43 ) or 0.688 ( = 86).
'55.8'− 250 125
5
3.24+0.688 M1 Correct use of formula for pooled variance using their values.
(=0.302)
10+5−2
s=0.550 A1 CAO
4
Question Answer Marks Guidance
Official mark scheme pages: 11 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-on-43-q06
Oct/Nov 2025 · Paper 43 · Question 6 · 9 marks
6(a) H : = H: B1 If in words, must contain ‘population means’.
0 B A 1 B A
Allow H : =0,H: 0 if defined or consistent with working.
0 d 1 d
Differences: 5, 0, −1, 6,1 , −2, 8, 7, 15 M1 Attempt at signed differences.
s2 =1 ( '405'−'39'2) =29.5 M1 Correct form for s2, note that s =5.43.
d 8 9 d d
'39' M1 Correct form.
9 =2.393
'29.5'
9 A1 AWRT 2.39.
'2.393'1.860, reject H / significant. M1 Compare their 2.393 with 1.860 and appropriate result (may be in
0
terms of H ).
1
Allow M1 for comparison from 2-sample test using 1.746.
Test result may be implied by an attempt at an appropriate
conclusion in context ignoring hypotheses.
Sufficient evidence to suggest new training programme results in A1 Correct conclusion from correct working ignoring hypotheses.
reduced times. In context.
OR Level of uncertainty in language is used (for example, not ‘prove’).
Sufficient evidence to support the coach’s belief. Do not accept statements such as “there is insufficient evidence to
suggest…”.
7
6(b) The population of differences may not be normally distributed. B1 Must mention population/distribution and differences.
The population of differences may not be symmetrical (and hence Accept “the sample may not be random” or “times may not be
not normal). independent”.
1
6(c) A Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank test. B1 Must refer to pairs / paired.
OR A paired-sample sign test. Accept “paired Wilcoxon test” or “paired sign test”.
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 14 of 16
Official mark scheme pages: 14 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-on-44-q01
Oct/Nov 2025 · Paper 44 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1(a) x=723, x2 =42261 B1 x=723 implied by AWRT 55.6 for x.
x2 =42261 implied by AWRT 171 for s2(or 158 if biased).
s2 = 1 ( '42261'−'723'2) = 2222 =170.9231 M1 Correct form, must be unbiased, s=13.07.
12 13 13 Implied by AWRT 171.
1.782 B1 1.782 or 1.78 seen.
'723' '170.9231' M1 Correct form, must be a t-value.
'1.782'
13 13
49.2, 62.1 A1 Accept with inequality signs or open brackets.
Condone 62.1,49.2.
Do not accept 55.66.5.
5
1(b) The population (of car speeds) is normally distributed. B1 Population mean normally distributed earns B0.
OR (Underlying) data is normal earns B0.
Underlying distribution is normal. It is normal distribution earns B0.
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 9 of 17
Official mark scheme pages: 9 · source PDF URL
9231-2025-on-44-q03
Oct/Nov 2025 · Paper 44 · Question 3 · 10 marks
3(a) H : = H: B1 If in words, must have population means.
0 Y X 1 Y X
Allow H : =0, H: 0 if d defined or consistent with
0 d 1 d
working.
Differences: 3, –1, 6, 2, 3, 3, –1, –2, 3, 3 M1 Attempt at signed differences, SOI.
s2 = 1 ( '91'−'19'2) =6.1 M1 Correct form, unbiased, implied by s2 =6.1 or s =2.47 seen.
d 9 10 d d
'19' M1 Correct form using their s2.
10 =2.43 d
'6.1' '696'−'677'
10 Allow M1 for 10 10 =0.666 from 2-sample t-test.
's ' 1 + 1
p 10 10
A1 AWRT 2.43.
'2.43'2.821, accept H / do not reject H / not significant. M1 Compare their 2.43 with 2.821 and appropriate result (may be in
0 0
terms of H ).
1
Allow M1 for comparing their 0.666 with 2.552 and appropriate
result from 2-sample t-test.
Test result may be implied by an attempt at an appropriate
conclusion in context ignoring hypotheses.
Their 2.43 must come from an attempt at standardising.
Insufficient evidence to support the manufacturer’s claim. A1 Correct conclusion from correct working ignoring hypotheses.
OR In context.
Insufficient evidence to support that (on average) machine Y Level of uncertainty in language is used (for example, not ‘prove’).
extracts more juice than machine X. Allow ‘Not enough evidence / no sufficient evidence that / to show
/ conclude that…’.
Do not accept ‘No evidence…’.
Do not accept statements such as ‘there is sufficient evidence to
suggest…’.
7
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 12 of 17
3(b) Population of differences is normally distributed. B1 Population mean normally distributed earns B0.
OR (Underlying) data is normal earns B0.
Underlying distribution of differences is normal. Must mention population/distribution and differences.
Following 2-sample test in part 3(a), allow either of the following:
Populations/underlying distributions are normal.
Populations have equal variances.
Must refer to both populations.
1
3(c) The difference remains the same for pair 4. The set of differences *B1 Comment that recognises that the differences remain unchanged.
has not changed.
OR OR
Redo the test: Compare their 2.43 from part 3(a) with 2.821.
2.432.821 Following 2-sample test in part 3(a), compare their 0.653 with
2.552.
The conclusion remains the same. DB1
2
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2025 Page 13 of 17
Official mark scheme pages: 12, 13 · source PDF URL
9231-2026-mj-41-q03
May/June 2026 · Paper 41 · Question 3 · 6 marks
3 (x−x)2 =29144−1 ( 4452) =854.7 M1 Either expression, may be embedded.
7
May be implied by
(y−y)2 =11622−1 ( 3102) =944.2
9
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2026 Page 12 of 17
5 94 82 3 or 4 23 46 9 or 142.45 or
118.03 seen.
s 2p =
'8 5 4 .7 '
7 +
+
9
'9
−
4
2
4 .2 ' M1 Correct form for pooled variance.
128.495 A1 1 1 3 3 3
8 8 2
3 , SOI, may be implied by s = 1 1 .3 3 6 .
(445−310)
2.145 '128.5'
(1 +1) B1 B1 for 2.145 seen.
7 9 7 9
M1 Correct form, must be a t-value.
FT their s. If variances combined, must use
( 4 47 5 − 3 19 0 ) 2 .1 4 5 5 94 82 3 + 4 23 46 9 .
1 6 .9 , 4 1 .4 A1 Accept with inequality signs or open brackets
or − 4 1 .4 , − 1 6 .9 from Y − X .
Condone 4 1 .4 , 1 6 .9 .
Do not accept 2 9 .1 5 1 2 .2 5 .
6
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9231-2026-mj-41-q05
May/June 2026 · Paper 41 · Question 5 · 8 marks
5(a) H :
0
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2026 Page 15 of 17
d
5 = , H :
1 d
5
OR
H :
0 A B
5 − = , H :
1 A B
5 −
B1 If not used, must have population means.
Allow use of in place of
d
.
M1 Calculates differences, at most 2 errors.
d 6 24 12 8 5 26 13 2
s 2d =
1
7
'1 6 9 4 '−
'9 6
8
2'
=
5 4
7
2
= 7 7 .4 3
M1 Must be unbiased.
s=8.799
t =
'9 6
8'7
'
−
7 .4
8
5
3 '
M1 M0 if 5 omitted.
2.25 A1 AWRT 2.25
‘2.25’ > 1.415, reject H / significant. M1 Compare their 2.25 with 1.415 and appropriate
0
conclusion (may be in terms of H ). Their 2.25
1
must come from an attempt at standardising.
Test result can be implied by an attempt at an
appropriate conclusion in context ignoring
hypotheses.
For 2-sample t-test allow comparison with 1.345.
Sufficient evidence to support Margaret’s claim. A1 Correct conclusion from correct working, ignoring
OR hypotheses.
Sufficient evidence to suggest that the course will improve a student’s score by more In context. Level of uncertainty in language is
than 5 marks (on average). used (for example, not ‘prove’).
Do not accept statements such as “there is
insufficient evidence to suggest…”.
7 Biased variance: max 4/7 (B1M1M0M1A0M1A0)
2-sample: max 2/7 (B1M0M0M0A0M1A0)
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5(b) Population of differences are normally distributed. B1 B1 for underlying/parent distribution of
differences is normal.
B0 for population mean is normally distributed.
B0 for (underlying) data is normal.
1
Question Answer Marks Guidance
Official mark scheme pages: 15, 16 · source PDF URL
9231-2026-mj-42-q03
May/June 2026 · Paper 42 · Question 3 · 6 marks
3 (x−x)2 =29144−1 ( 4452) =854.7
7
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2026 Page 12 of 17
( y − y ) 2 = 1 1 6 2 2 − 19 ( 3 1 0 2 ) = 9 4 4 .2
M1 Either expression, may be embedded.
May be implied by 5 94 82 3 or 4 23 46 9 or 142.45 or
118.03 seen.
s 2p =
'8 5 4 .7 '
7 +
+
9
'9
−
4
2
4 .2 ' M1 Correct form for pooled variance.
128.495 A1 1 1 3 3 3
8 8 2
3 , SOI, may be implied by s = 1 1 .3 3 6 .
( 4 47 5 − 3 19 0 ) 2 .1 4 5 '1 2 8 .5 (' 17 + 19 ) B1 B1 for 2.145 seen.
M1 Correct form, must be a t-value.
FT their s. If variances combined, must use
( 4 47 5 − 3 19 0 ) 2 .1 4 5 5 94 82 3 + 4 23 46 9 .
1 6 .9 , 4 1 .4 A1 Accept with inequality signs or open brackets
or − 4 1 .4 , − 1 6 .9 from Y − X .
Condone 4 1 .4 , 1 6 .9 .
Do not accept 2 9 .1 5 1 2 .2 5 .
6
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9231-2026-mj-42-q05
May/June 2026 · Paper 42 · Question 5 · 8 marks
5(a) H :
0
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2026 Page 15 of 17
d
5 = , H : 5
1 d
OR
H :
0 A B
5 − = , H :
1 A B
5 −
B1 If not used, must have population means.
Allow use of in place of
d
.
M1 Calculates differences, at most 2 errors.
d 6 24 12 8 5 26 13 2
s 2d =
1
7
'1 6 9 4 '−
'9 6
8
2'
=
5 4
7
2
= 7 7 .4 3
M1 Must be unbiased.
s=8.799
t =
'9 6
8'7
'
−
7 .4
8
5
3 '
M1 M0 if 5 omitted.
2.25 A1 AWRT 2.25
‘2.25’ > 1.415, reject H / significant. M1 Compare their 2.25 with 1.415 and appropriate
0
conclusion (may be in terms of H ). Their 2.25
1
must come from an attempt at standardising.
Test result can be implied by an attempt at an
appropriate conclusion in context ignoring
hypotheses.
For 2-sample t-test allow comparison with 1.345.
Sufficient evidence to support Margaret’s claim. A1 Correct conclusion from correct working, ignoring
OR hypotheses.
Sufficient evidence to suggest that the course will improve a student’s score by more In context. Level of uncertainty in language is
than 5 marks (on average). used (for example, not ‘prove’).
Do not accept statements such as “there is
insufficient evidence to suggest…”.
7 Biased variance: max 4/7 (B1M1M0M1A0M1A0)
2-sample: max 2/7 (B1M0M0M0A0M1A0)
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5(b) Population of differences are normally distributed. B1 B1 for underlying/parent distribution of
differences is normal.
B0 for population mean is normally distributed.
B0 for (underlying) data is normal.
1
Question Answer Marks Guidance
Official mark scheme pages: 15, 16 · source PDF URL
9231-2026-mj-43-q01
May/June 2026 · Paper 43 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2026 Page 9 of 15
x =
1 9 2
9
.2 B1 OE, for example, 21.356 or 9 6 1
4 5
.
Accuracy must be 3 significant figures or better.
s 2 =
1
8
4 1 2 7 .6 4 −
1 9 2
9
.2 2 M1 Correct form with their values. May be implied by sight of
2.887… or 2 5 9 9
9 0 0
for s2 or 1.69934… for s.
t =
1 9 2
9
.2
s
9
−
2
2 0
M1 Correct form with their values.
2.39 A1 AWRT 2.39 or 2.40. Accept ± here.
'2 .3 9 ' 2 .3 0 6 , reject H / significant. M1 Compare their 2.39 with 2.306 and appropriate conclusion (may
0
be in terms of H ).
1
Test result can be implied by an attempt at an appropriate
conclusion in context.
Their 2.39 must come from an attempt at standardising.
There is sufficient evidence to support that 2 0 . A1 Correct conclusion from correct working. No contradictions.
Level of uncertainty in language used (for example, not ‘prove’).
Allow , or (population) mean.
Do not accept statements such as ‘there is insufficient evidence to
suggest…’.
6
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9231-2026-mj-43-q05
May/June 2026 · Paper 43 · Question 5 · 11 marks
5(a)
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2026 Page 13 of 15
H
0
:
x y
H :1
x y
= B1 If not used, must have population means.
1 6.632
s x 2 = 43 1.21− 44 =4.906510−3
or s 2y =
1
5 1
1 .6 5 −
8 .5
5
6
2
2
= 4 .7 2 3 4 1 0 − 3
M1 Either expression, may be embedded.
Implied by 2.02310−4.
s2 s2 4.906510−3 4.723410−3 M1 Correct form with their sample variances.
x + y = + For pooled s, award this M1 for correct form of pooled estimate.
44 52 44 52
2 .0 2 3 1 0 − 4 A1 May be implied by s = 0 .0 1 4 2 2 .
Accept 3 significant figure accuracy or better.
A0 for pooled s.
z =
6 .6 3
4 4
2 s
x
4 4
−
+
8 .5
5 2
2 s
y
5 2
6
= − 0 .9 8 ( 0 )
M1 Value of z obtained using correct form with their sample
variances. Order of numerator may be reversed.
A1 Accept –0.977 to –0.980.
May see 0.980 for opposite order of numerator.
Use of pooled s scores M0 A0.
' − 0 .9 8 0 ' − 1 .2 8 2 , accept H
0
/ do not reject H
0
/ not significant.
OR
P ( Z − 0 .9 8 0 ) = 0 .1 6 3 5 0 .1 , accept H
0
/ do not reject H
0
M1 Compare their z with
/ not
significant.
1 .2 8 2 (consistent signs) and appropriate
conclusion (may be in terms of H ). 1
Accept 0.1637.
Test result can be implied by a conclusion that is consistent with
their − 0 .9 8 0 or 0.1635.
Insufficient evidence to support Rhiannon’s claim. A1 Correct conclusion from correct working ignoring hypotheses.
In context. Level of uncertainty in language used (for example,
not ‘prove’). Condone ‘no sufficient evidence’. Do not accept
statements such as ‘there is sufficient evidence to suggest…’.
8 Use of pooled s scores max 3/8 B1 M1 M0 A0 M0 A0 M1 A0.
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5(b) M1 Accept their s (may be pooled).
6.63 8.56 s2 s2
− 1.645 x + y Use correct formula with any z-value.
44 52 44 52 May subtract the means in opposite order.
B1 1.645 SOI. Allow 1.64 or 1.65.
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2026 Page 14 of 15
[ − 0 .0 3 7 3 , 0 .0 0 9 4 7 ] A1 Accept 0.00947 to 0.0095.
Accept with inequality signs or open brackets or
− 9 .4 7 1 0 − 3 , 0 .0 3 7 3
from Y − X .
Condone 9 .4 7 1 0 − 3 , − 0 .0 3 7 3
.
Do not accept − 0 .0 1 3 9 0 .0 2 3 4 .
3
Question Answer Marks Guidance
Official mark scheme pages: 13, 14 · source PDF URL
9231-2026-mj-44-q01
May/June 2026 · Paper 44 · Question 1 · 6 marks
1 934.3 B1 Either expression, may be embedded.
s2 = =23.956
x 39 Accuracy must be 3 significant figures or better.
May be implied by
756.2
s2 = =12.817 y 59 17.25,
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2026 Page 9 of 18
6 94 , 0.71875, 23 32 , 18 4 6 or 0.84779 seen.
Allow B1 for correct form of pooled estimate.
s 2 =
'2 3 .9
4 0
5 6 '
+
'1 2 .8
6 0
1 7 '[
= 0 .8 1 2 5 ]
M1 Correct form using their values.
M0 for pooled estimate.
A1 For fully correct expression SOI.
Implied by AWRT 0.812 or 0.813 or s = 0 .9 0 1
or fully correct interval.
6 7
4
.1
0
−
8 4
6
.1
0
1 .9 6 '0 .8 1 2 5 ' = 0 .2 7 5 8 1 .7 6 6 7
M1 Correct form with any z-value.
Condone t = 1.98.
FT their s. If pooled must use s2( 1 + 1 ) .
p 40 60
B1 1.96 seen.
− 1 .4 9 , 2 .0 4 A1 CWO
Accept with inequality signs or open brackets.
Condone 2 .0 4 , − 1 .4 9 .
Do not accept 0 .2 7 6 1 .7 6 7 .
6 Use of pooled s scores max 3/6 B1 M0 A0 M1
B1 A0 leading to [–1.39, 1.94].
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9231-2026-mj-44-q06
May/June 2026 · Paper 44 · Question 6 · 10 marks
6(a) H : =, H: B1 If in words, must have population means.
0 A B 1 A B
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2026 Page 17 of 18
( x − x ) 2 = '9 7 7 8 '−
'2 7
8
0 2'
= 6 6 5 .5
B1 For correct sum and sum of squares for either x
or y.
May be implied, for example, by either 95.1 or
56.75 seen.
'225'2
(y− y)2 ='6079'− =454.0
M1 Correct form for both expressions using their
9
values. May be embedded.
'665.5'+'454.0' M1 Correct form of pooled variance using their
s2 =
p 8+9−2 values.
2 23 30 9 = 7 4 .6 3 3 A1 AWRT 74.6, implied by 2.08.
( t = )
'2
'7
7
8
4
0
.6
'
3
−
3
'2
('
2
9
18
5
+
'
19 )
M1 Must be in correct form using their s.
2 .0 8 4 A1 AWRT 2.08
'2.084' > 1.753, reject H / significant. M1 Compare their
0
2 .0 8 4 with 1 .7 5 3 (consistent
signs) and appropriate conclusion (may be in
terms of H
1
).
Their 2 .0 8 4 must come from an attempt at
standardising.
Test result can be implied by an attempt at an
appropriate conclusion in context.
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6(a) Sufficient evidence to suggest that there is a difference in the (average) percentage A1 Correct conclusion from correct working,
of waste (that is recycled in City A and City B). ignoring hypotheses.
In context. Level of uncertainty in language used
(for example, not ‘prove’).
Allow ‘(Some/enough) evidence that/to
show/conclude that…’.
Do not accept statements such as ‘there is
insufficient evidence to suggest…’.
9 Combined s max 5/9
B1B1M1M0A0M1A0M1A0
6(b) Population of percentage of household waste recycled in each city are normal. B1 B1 for underlying/parent distributions are
normal.
B0 for population mean normally distributed.
B0 for (population of/underlying) data/sample
is normal.
Allow singular, for example, population is
normal.
Allow use of A and B to denote population /
random variable.
Must not refer to differences.
1
© Cambridge University Press & Assessment 2026 Page 18 of 18
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